How The GOP Are Stealing The Elections

I know I’m like a dog with a bone, but I just can’t shake off the feeling that the Kentucky governorship was stolen from the Democrats.

I have heard people say that Jack Conway wasn’t a good candidate, but this doesn’t take away from the fact, as Addicting Info, so eloquently put it…

The unofficial results would suggest that voters favored democratic candidates for Secretary of State (democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes) and Attorney General (democrat Andy Bashir), but then decided that they wanted a full blown right-wing nut-job like Matt Bevin for governor.

It just doesn’t make sense. Addicting Info also has this to add…

Another elections watchdog, Richard Charnin, who holds a Masters Degree in Applied Mathematics just published preliminary results of his analysis of the cumulative vote shares in the Kentucky governor’s race, finding that the “cumulative vote shares indicate likely fraud.”

In explaining the analysis process, Charnin wrote:

“I downloaded precinct vote data for the largest 25 KY counties and five smaller counties (view the spreadsheet and the graphs below). Downloading all 120 counties is a time consuming process, so I expect to download about 20 more over the next few days. The objective is to view the effects of county/precinct size on the cumulative vote share trend. Since the largest counties are usually heavily Democratic, the consistent pattern of Republican Governor candidates gaining share from small to large precincts is counter-intuitive. On the other hand, there is virtually no change in vote shares in smaller, heavily GOP counties.”

(View the whole analysis, with a number of charts and graphs on Richard Charnin’s blog here.)

Intrigued, I took a trip over to Richard Charnin’s blog.

Questions have been raised as to whether the number of elections analyzed is sufficient to draw conclusions. Given that approximately 20 million votes in 13 elections have been analyzed, the results are statistically significant. The analysis is confirmed by other forensic methods (True Vote Model, exit polls) for competitive and non-competitive races.

The analysis of cumulative vote shares (CVS) has revealed a consistent pattern. It is a well-known fact that Democrats are the majority in highly populated urban locations; the largest precincts are usually Democratic. Republicans are heavily represented in rural areas. But in scores of state elections there has been an increase in cumulative Republican vote shares in larger precincts. This anomaly has been noted by PhDs in Kansas and Vanderbilt University.

The basic premise is that Republican increase in cumulative precinct vote shares is counter-intuitive since the Democrats do much better in urban and suburban counties than in rural areas where the GOP is dominant. Precincts in Urban areas contain more voters than rural areas.

I am no statistician, but if I understand this correctly, the GOP are stealing votes from the predominantly suburban areas and leaving the rural (GOP) areas alone. This seems to happen after the cumulative vote share at the 25% mark. As Charmin notes about the 2014 election…

A Cumulative Vote Share (CVA) analysis of the 2014 Massachusetts Governor election showed greater discrepancies than the close races in WI, FL, MD and IL. CVS analysis indicated that election fraud was likely in each election. All showed the same counter-intuitive upward trend in Republican cumulative vote shares. Democrats are strong in large, vote-rich urban areas and Republicans dominate in small, rural areas.

The beauty of CVS analysis is that it is easy to understand. Given the basic premise that Democrats usually do much better than Republicans in heavily populated counties, then we would not expect Republicans to gain share as precinct votes are sorted and summed from the smallest to the largest precincts. This is a red flag and indicates that the election was likely fraudulent.

Note that cumulative vote share at the 25% mark is the basis for calculating the change to the final vote. At 25% the Democrats typically lead by a solid margin, especially in heavily populated counties. But it’s all downhill from there.

Fast forward on to Kentucky.

Jefferson County
A Democratic stronghold, Jefferson is the largest county in KY with 192,391 recorded votes. At the 25% mark (48,000) votes, Conway led in Jefferson by 66-30%. He won the county by 58-39%. The 17% change in margin lowered his vote margin from 69,000 to 31,000. But there may have been vote flipping from zero to 48,000. Conway led by 70-27% after the first 11,500 votes.

Fayette County
There were 69,953 recorded votes. At the 25% mark, Conway led by 60-34%. He won the county by 55-40%. The 11% change lowered his margin from 18,000 to 10,000 votes.

Kenton County
There were 31,453 recorded votes. At the 25% mark, they were tied at 47%. Bevin won the county by 57-39%. The 18% change increased Bevins’ margin from 80 to 5700 votes. Conway led by 53-41% after the first 2,200 votes (7% mark).

Do you see what is happening here? Cos I do! And it fucking stinks.

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16 Responses to How The GOP Are Stealing The Elections

  1. Professorcanine says:

    “On Kentucky: Several new developments following the completely unverified results of Tuesday’s Gubernatorial election in Kentucky, where pre-election polls all predicted the opposite of the ‘landslide’ reported by the state’s computer tabulators. Among those developments: A KY newspaper fires their well-respected pollster rather than bothering to find out if the polls were right and the results were wrong; Another reminder of why hand-marked paper ballots like those in KY are swell, but only if you bother to actually count them; We weather a few attacks from progressives who charge us with forwarding conspiracy theories and don’t think we should bother to count ballots; And, new information out of Pima County (Tucson), AZ to remind us why citizen vigilance and oversight is needed to assure the survival of democracy.”

    Also the recent closing of all the Alabama driver license offices in the predominately black counties after passing a law requiring a state issued ID is a load of Rethug chicanery also too.

  2. Pearl says:

    It’s nothing new. They’ve been stealing elections any chance they get anyway they can. My district has a 300 mile long gerrymander that spans Kachemek Bay and the Gulf of Alaska to Kodiak Island. Also remember how they stole the election from Al Gore? Theory is they did that with the voting machines.

  3. irishgirl999 says:

    You are preaching to the converted .

  4. MrsGunka says:

    I just remember Rove election night when it didn’t turn out as he predicted! I hope the Dems have their sh*t together come next Nov and catch the thieves again! But we need to do it for every election. Take a look at the legislature they put in! Wonder how many more were flipped last Tues? Pay no attention to the guy behind the curtain!

    • crow says:

      i remember much of that, too. Romney was supposed to win by a landslide. During the last few days before the election, Obama was out making his final push and Romney went off boating. He wasn’t the least bit concerned. He was so sure of his victory he hadn’t even bothered to prepare a concession speech. After all, Rove had promised him.

      The idea was to do another vote swap in Ohio like they did in the 2004 election. Before the computer “crashed” Kerry was leading and when it came back Bush was ahead. A hacker group (I think it might have been Anonymous) was able to see what they had done in 2004 and prevented it from happening in 2012. That’s why Rove was so surprised when Ohio didn’t turn the way he had expected.

      I don’t remember any rumblings in the 2008 election. I think the support for Barack Obama was so overwhelming that even Rove couldn’t pull off a fraud that would convince the public that the nation elected John McCain and Sarah Palin over Obama/Biden. Anonymous probably didn’t even bother with that one. Sarah Palin? No one would have believed it.

  5. Pearl says:

    What has happened, in my opinion is that Fox News and the right wing echo chamber at some point started believing their own hype. It’s mind boggling to imagine that the masterminds of the Fox charade brainwashed themselves into believing their own BS is true. Like a virus it spread to the candidates which they helped to frankenstein into the political arena. Remember how shocked Mitt Romney was that he lost? Not to mention the high roller donors to the campaign whose money just got pissed away for nothing. They believed the hype too! lol

    There’s a longer version of the incident on election night but I chose the shorter Young Turks version because 18 minutes of Fox News is just too damn long, even if I’m gloating.

  6. Historical Overview and Analysis of Election Fraud

    In the 1968-2012 Presidential elections, the Republicans won the average recorded vote by 48.7-45.8%. The 1968-2012 National True Vote Model (TVM) indicates the Democrats won the True Vote by 49.6-45.0% – a 7.5% margin discrepancy.

    In the 1988-2008 elections, the Democrats won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 52-42% – but won the recorded vote by just 48-46%, an 8% margin discrepancy. View the state and national numbers:

    The state exit poll margin of error was exceeded in 135 of 274 state presidential elections from 1988-2008. The probability of the occurrence is ZERO. Only 14 (5%) would be expected to exceed the MoE at the 95% confidence level. Of the 135 which exceeded the MoE, 131 red-shifted to the Republican. The probability P of that anomaly is ABSOLUTE ZERO (E-116). That is scientific notation for

    P= .000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 0000001.

    The bedrock of the evidence derives from this undisputed fact: National and state actual exit poll results are always adjusted in order to force a match to the recorded vote – even if doing so requires an impossible turnout of prior election voters and implausible vote shares.

    Much more at the link…

  7. 40Watt says:

    America’s ‘voting machines are f**cked’: The Daily Show examines a major threat to our election process

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