Just What Happened To Flight MH370?

First of all, Happy St. Patrick’s Day to everyone.

Secondly, I have been following the news on the missing flight from Malaysia. Apparently, a satellite has confirmed that Flight MH370 was still flying 7 hours after the transponder was turned off.

Courtesy of The Guardian:

How do we know the plane flew on after the transponder was switched off?

Routine, automated signals from the aircraft – known as electronic handshakes or pings – registered on the Inmarsat satellite network. MH370′s last ping suggested it was in one of two flight corridors: one between Thailand and Kazakhstan, and another between Indonesia and the southern Indian Ocean. The last confirmed communication was at 08.11, which would indicate that the Boeing continued flying for nearly seven hours after contact was lost. So its location will be extremely difficult to pinpoint. Without further radar/satellite/eyewitness testimony, say experts, it is very much like looking for a needle in a haystack. A source familiar with US assessments of the Inmarsat pings said it appeared the plane turned south over the Indian Ocean, where it would presumably have run out of fuel and crashed.

Actually, I believe the ping pinpointed the arc shown in red.

planeSince India, Pakistan and China reported no radar knowledge of the plane, I think they assumed that it headed south. If it was, then I think the plane and the occupants were probably in deep trouble at that stage.

However, while I was reading The Guardian today I came across an interesting link! The link had emanated from air traffic controllers in Australia. People seem to like this guy’s theory. So here it is, in its entirety.

Courtesy of Keith Ledgerwood:

Did Malaysian Airlines 370 disappear using SIA68/SQ68 (another 777)?

Monday, March 17, 2014 – 12:01 AM EST

UPDATED: Monday, March 17, 2014 – 9:00 AM EST
Typo was made during the conversion of UTC times.  Meeting of SIA68 and MH320 occurred at 18:00UTC – 18:15UTC.  MH320 dropped off of civilian radar at 17:22UTC.

UPDATE – Monday, March 17, 2014 – 12:15 PM EST
Some have raised the statement that TCAS doesn’t work if the transponder is disabled… this is only partially correct.  Other planes TCAS would NOT see MH370 at all.  MH370 would not actively query other planes as it’s transponder is off HOWEVER it could still listen to any transponder output from other planes that are actively transmitting.  SQ68 would have been actively transmitting while in-range of Subang ATC center. 

Even if TCAS on MH370 wasn’t working for some reason, an in-expensive portable ADS-B receiver paired with an iPad and Foreflight app would allow a pilot to receive the ADS-B output being transmitted by SQ68 at that time.

————————————————————————————————————

By: Keith Ledgerwood

As the search for missing flight Malaysian Airlines flight 370 drags on into the 10th day, so many questions continue to remain unanswered about how and why the airliner could have disappeared while seemingly under the control of a skilled pilot intent on making it invisible. With satellite pings showing where the plane could be after more than seven hours of flight, speculation has arisen that the plane could be on the ground anywhere along a path from northern Thailand to the border of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

The major roadblock to this theory has been the insistence from India and Pakistan that their radar network showed no such unidentified aircraft entering or traversing their airspace.  It would seem highly unlikely given such information that a Boeing 777 could indeed slip through undetected.

As a hobby pilot and aviation enthusiast, a theory began to form in my own mind on this 10th day as all of the latest information began to trickle in slowly through media outlets globally.  After being unable to escape the idea that it may have happened, I began to do some analysis and research and what I discovered was very troubling to me!

Starting with a set of facts that have been made available publically and verified over the past few days, I first plotted MH370’s course onto an aviation IFR map which shows the airways and waypoints used to navigate the skies.  I plotted the point where it stopped transmitting ADS-B information at 1721UTC.  I then plotted the Malaysian military radar track from that point towards “VAMPI”, “GIVAL”, and then onward toward “IGREX” on P628 ending with where the plane should be at 1815UTC when military radar lost contact.

That chart looks like this:

chart
Source: SkyVector.com 

Nothing profound there… but then I looked to see what other planes were in the air at 1815UTC and I looked to see exactly where they were positioned in the sky and where they were flying.   The picture started to develop when I discovered that another Boeing 777 was en-route from Singapore over the Andaman Sea.

flight

Source: FlightRadar24.com

I investigated further and plotted the exact coordinates of Singapore Airlines flight number 68’s location at 1815UTC onto the aviation map.  I quickly realized that SIA68 was in the immediate vicinity as the missing MH370 flight at precisely the same time.  Moreover, SIA68 was en-route on a heading towards the same IGREX waypoint on airway P628 that the Malaysian military radar had shown MH370 headed towards at precisely the same time.

coincidence

Source: SkyVector.com

It became apparent as I inspected SIA68’s flight path history that MH370 had maneuvered itself directly behind SIA68 at approximately 18:00UTC and over the next 15 minutes had been following SIA68.   All the pieces of my theory had been fitting together with the facts that have been publically released and I began to feel a little uneasy.

Singapore Airlines Flight 68 proceeded across the Andaman Sea into the Bay of Bengal and finally into India’s airspace.  From there it appears to have proceeded across India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and finally Turkmenistan before proceeding onward across Europe to its final destination of Barcelona, Spain.

This map depicts the approximate flight path of SIA flight 68 on that particular day.  Additional detail will be required from each countries aviation authorities to establish exact particulars of the route.

path
Source: SkyVector.com

So by now, you may have caught on or you may be scratching your head and wondering if I’ve gone insane!  How does SIA68 have anything to do with MH370 disappearing?   Remember the one challenge that is currently making everyone doubt that MH370 actually flew to Turkmenistan, Iran, China, or Kyrgyzstan?  That challenge is the thought that MH370 couldn’t make it through several key airspaces such as India or Afghanistan without being detected by the military.

It is my belief that MH370 likely flew in the shadow of SIA68 through India and Afghanistan airspace.  As MH370 was flying “dark” without transponder / ADS-B output, SIA68 would have had no knowledge that MH370 was anywhere around and as it entered Indian airspace, it would have shown up as one single blip on the radar with only the transponder information of SIA68 lighting up ATC and military radar screens.

Wouldn’t the SIA68 flight have detected MH370?  NO!  The Boeing 777 utilizes a TCAS system for traffic avoidance; the system would ordinarily provide alerts and visualization to pilots if another airplane was too close.  However that system only operates by receiving the transponder information from other planes and displaying it for the pilot.  If MH370 was flying without the transponder, it would have been invisible to SIA68.

In addition, the TCAS system onboard MH370 would have enabled the pilot(s) to easily locate and approach SIA68 over the Straits of Malacca as they appeared to have done.  The system would have shown them the flight’s direction of travel and the altitude it was traveling which would have enabled them to perfectly time an intercept right behind the other Boeing 777.  Here is a picture of a TCAS system onboard a 777.

How does this solve the mystery??? We know MH370 didn’t fly to Spain!  Once MH370 had cleared the volatile airspaces and was safe from being detected by military radar sites in India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan it would have been free to break off from the shadow of SIA68 and could have then flown a path to it’s final landing site.  There are several locations along the flight path of SIA68 where it could have easily broken contact and flown and landed in Xingjian province, Kyrgyzstan, or Turkmenistan. Each of these final locations would match up almost perfectly with the 7.5 hours of total flight time and trailing SIA68.  In addition, these locations are all possibilities that are on the “ARC” and fit with the data provided by Inmarsat from the SATCOM’s last known ping at 01:11UTC.

There are too many oddities in this whole story that don’t make sense if this theory isn’t the answer in my opinion.  Why did MH370 fly a seemingly haphazard route and suddenly start heading northwest towards the Andaman Islands on P628?   If not for this reason, it seems like a rather odd maneuver.  The timing and evasive actions seem deliberate.  Someone went through great lengths to attempt to become stealthy and disable ACARS, transponder/ADS-B (even though SATCOM to Inmarsat was left powered).

After looking at all the details, it is my opinion that MH370 snuck out of the Bay of Bengal using SIA68 as the perfect cover.  It entered radar coverage already in the radar shadow of the other 777, stayed there throughout coverage, and then exited SIA68’s shadow and then most likely landed in one of several land locations north of India and Afghanistan.

Sources: SkyVector.com, FlightRadar24.com, FlightAware.com, CNN.com, Reuters.com.

-Keith L.

KeithLCincy@gmail.com

I wouldn’t normally give any credence to this, except the Malaysian authorities seem certain the transponders were deliberately turned off.

 

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8 Responses to Just What Happened To Flight MH370?

  1. lindak1961 says:

    Sounds plausible, Irishgirl. Not that I know anything about the subject, but the whole thing is strange. I’m still hoping that the innocent people on board the plane are alive and safe, and that their loved ones will soon know it.

  2. MrsGunka says:

    This seems the most common sense speculation I’ve seen so far. Can you imagine what the guys with the true maps are doing to figure this mystery out. Let’s hope once they pin point the general spot there will positive information coming out. This is not the disappearance of Amelia Errhardt.(sp) Quite a bit more technology to use now. Thanks IG for posting this.

  3. 40Watt says:

    I know nothing but this caught my eye today on this site – http://www.askthepilot.com/malaysia-airlines-flight-370/

    UPDATE: March 17, 2014. Investigators point to a hijacking. In the meantime, can we please stop talking about transponders?

    And some clarity, please, on the topic of transponders. The media is throwing this term around without a full understanding of how the equipment works. For position reporting and traffic sequencing purposes, transponders only work in areas of typical ATC radar coverage. Most of the world, including the oceans, does not have ATC radar coverage. Transponders are relevant to this story only when the missing plane was close to land. Once over the ocean, it didn’t matter anyway. Over oceans and non-radar areas, other means are used for position reports and tracking/communicating (satcomm, datalink, etc.), not transponders.

    As to the plane landing in Xingjian province, Kyrgyzstan, or Turkmenistan, I don’t even know how to go about finding information that might start to answer why? If anyone has any ideas, I’d be fascinated to hear. And is it possible for this to happen and no one passed this information on to anyone? Not one tweet?

  4. 40Watt says:

    If you want to read some more interesting stuff from people who know of what the speak, try this – http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/safety/80284-malaysian-777-missing-58.html

    • titlewave says:

      That’s interesting- they have as many questions and theories as the rest of us. It seems to be perplexing not only to us but people who have some knowledge on the subject. For me it always comes back to the passengers. It was the middle of the night but I would think that somebody would use a cell phone if they suspected anything was wrong. But I guess only if they were awake and not sleeping, and if the crew didn’t or couldn’t answer their questions. So much doesn’t make sense.

      It’s terrible that we don’t know more and maybe never will. The poor family members and friends, it must be hell for them.

    • irishgirl999 says:

      Thanks for the link 40. It really is very unclear what happened. I am now familiar with waypoints, pings and a variety of other aviation terms. We may never know what transpired and I feel so sorry for the families who are hoping their loved ones will return. I don’t hold out a lot of hope.

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